Zimbabwe's 29 March 2008 elections opened a new chapter in the country's long-running political crisis. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe came in second in the presidential voting, and the opposition - the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe fought back by withholding the presidential results and launching a vicious countrywide crackdown ahead of a 27 June run-off against MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai. But severe state repression led Tsvangirai to withdraw, and Mugabe ran as the sole candidate in a poll condemned by African observers as neither free nor fair. With Mugabe having started his sixth term in office on 29 June, the international community must now move quickly to support a new regional effort to halt the violence and broker a political solution. As we headed to press talks aimed at forming a government of national Unity were on life support.

The results of the initial presidential polls on 29 March were released after an unprecedented five-week delay and amid growing international pressure. On 2 May, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) finally announced that Tsvangirai had won 47.9 per cent of the vote to Mugabe’s 43.2 per cent, necessitating a runoff. While the official results tallied closely with independent estimates, the delay in their release casts serious doubts over their credibility. On 16 May, after yet another delay, the ZEC set 27 June for the second round.

State violence surged as Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party rallied to force victory after the electoral losses. Tsvangirai was arrested five times in June along with other senior party members, MDC state media access was barred and most opposition rallies banned, while ZANU-PF militia launched violent attacks on MDC members, supporters and ordinary citizens. The MDC say some 85 members have now been killed and 2,000 detained since April. Rural areas suspected of supporting the opposition have witnessed a systematic campaign of torture, murder and repression. At least 2,500 people have been treated for injuries, up to 200,000 displaced and food aid restricted to ruling party members after aid agencies were banned on 5 June.

A chorus of international condemnation from Western leaders together with pockets of criticism from the region and the UN Security Council has not caused Mugabe to rethink his approach. The UNSC and EU are currently discussing the extension of targeted sanctions against members of the ZANU-PF regime and possible further measures.

Reactions across Africa have been mixed. Election observation missions dispatched by the African Union (AU), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Pan African Parliament (PAP) reached the unprecedented verdict that the 27 June poll was not credible but this has not translated into official censure or punitive action against the Mugabe regime. On 1 July, at the last African Union summit, heads of state avoided any direct criticism of Robert Mugabe who attended the gathering. Only two African presidents could directly condemn Mugabe actions. Some SADC and other African countries, including Botswana, Zambia and Kenya, have taken an increasingly robust stance. By contrast, long-time mediator South African President Thabo Mbeki continues to refuse to speak out against Mugabe.

President Mbeki is now overseeing the almost sure to fail talks, but he has been here before. After a brutal government crackdown on the opposition in March 2007, the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) mandated South African President Mbeki to mediate between the government and the MDC - aiming to secure a new constitution and free and fair conditions for elections. Talks stalled in January 2008, when Mugabe called snap elections for March despite the MDC’s call for postponement until a new constitution adopted. The SADCbacked talks had proposed the postponement of elections in preference for a government of national unity.

Now Mugabe is threatening to quit the talks and form government with Arthur Mutambara’s breakaway MDC faction. Ex-finance minister, Simba Makoni, who quit Mugabe’s government in February to form another Party SADC, seem to be willing to join the Mugabe government. Though he run for presidency coming in third, he all along called for a government of national Unity instead of having elections.

Zimbabweans face economic turmoil and corruption, food shortages and the collapse of vital services. HIV/ AIDS among adults stands at over 20 per cent. In April 2008 the annual inflation rate stood at over 165,000 per cent – the world’s highest by a margin – making day-to-day life for Zimbabweans increasingly difficult. Up a third of the population are thought to have fled over recent years. Remittances from the growing diaspora have become a lifeline for many remaining. The U.S. and EU continue sanctions against members of the ZANU-PF regime.

The talks are haunted by the spirit of the late Joshua Nkomo, whose fate stands as a warning to anyone trying to strike a deal with Robert Mugabe. Joshua Nkomo was Mugabe's contemporary, and a Zimbabwean liberation leader of impeccable credentials. In 1980, at independence, he emerged as an alternative leader to Mugabe. His support base was in Matabeleland in the south and west of the country.

Mugabe fought him for five years. First he sent into Matabeleland the ruthless, North Korea-trained Fifth brigade.

Thousands of Nkomo’s supporters were murdered and their bodies dumped in mass graves in a two-year operation known as Gukurahundi.

Then in a master stroke Mugabe reached a power-sharing agreement with Joshua Nkomo. Nkomo was brought into the government as vicepresident. Officially, the two political parties merged to form Zanu-PF, but in reality Mugabe’s party swallowed Nkomo's Zapu party whole. Nkomo was neutralized, and he died on the sidelines of power.

Mugabe used what, on the face of it, was sold to the world as a power-sharing agreement to consolidate his own one-party state which has entrenched his dictatorship for 20 years.

If Nkomo could speak from the grave, would he warn the opposition Movement of Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai not to walk into the same trap.

As the talks progress Mugabe has in mind what you might call the Nkomo solution: he retains control of the military and security services that he has used so successfully to terrorize his way to successive election victories. Observers see him as putting together a redux of his agreement with Nkomo.

Mugabe's game plan is to retain the coercive instruments and hand over the dilapidated economy to Tsvangirai to sort out. The European Union and the United States have both made it clear that they would not help fund a recovery package under a deal like this. And Mugabe like the tune. He makes hay with this, accusing his rival of being the candidate of Western interests, of resurgent British imperialism. This plays well in much of Africa, but it no longer plays well in Zimbabwe, where there is now real economic privation.

Evidence shows that there is immense pressure on the MDC from below, from the millions of ordinary Zimbabweans who have risked much and endured more; what they fear more than Mugabe terror squads is that Tsvangirai will be tempted to settle. Many would see such a deal as an unforgivable betrayal.

At the negotiating table it has been three against one - with Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Arthur Mutambara, who leads a minority faction of the opposition, joining forces with Mugabe to put pressure on Tsvangirai to accept the Zanu-PF power-sharing plan. Brave as he is, constancy is not one of Tsvangirai’s virtues. And Mugabe knows this, hence stretching out the talks have hung on in the hope that Tsvangirai bends to this pressure.

But Tsvangirai has not yielded. He has shown more backbone than the other three had hoped. The experience of the Kenyan situation has emboldened him. He wants the transfer of real executive power from the president's office to that of the prime minister, where Mugabe would stay on as head of state in a largely ceremonial role.

The odds are stacked against that. The hardliners who run the military and security services are implacably against it. Mugabe is negotiating for them as well as for his party. But Tsvangirai has two strong cards: the first is that he holds the key to an internationally funded recovery program, which cannot happen without him; and time is on his side.

In South Africa, Thabo Mbeki has less than a year left in office. His likely successor, Jacob Zuma, has been much more critical of Mugabe, and his party, the African National Congress, has openly accused Mugabe of bringing the liberation tradition into disrepute.